Stock Analysis
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Archer-Daniels-Midland's (NYSE:ADM) investors will be pleased with their strong 103% return over the last three years
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE:ADM) shareholders have seen the share price rise 89% over three years, well in excess of the market return (32%, not including dividends).
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
See our latest analysis for Archer-Daniels-Midland
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, Archer-Daniels-Midland achieved compound earnings per share growth of 44% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 24% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. We'd venture the lowish P/E ratio of 9.01 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It is of course excellent to see how Archer-Daniels-Midland has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Archer-Daniels-Midland's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Archer-Daniels-Midland, it has a TSR of 103% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Archer-Daniels-Midland had a tough year, with a total loss of 15% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 2.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 14%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Archer-Daniels-Midland better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Archer-Daniels-Midland you should be aware of.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
What are the risks and opportunities for Archer-Daniels-Midland?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Rewards
Trading at 8.5% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings grew by 45% over the past year
Risks
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.6% per year for the next 3 years
Further research on
Archer-Daniels-Midland
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.
