We Think Vital Farms' (NASDAQ:VITL) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

When companies post strong earnings, the stock generally performs well, just like Vital Farms, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:VITL) stock has recently. We have done some analysis, and we found several positive factors beyond the profit numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Vital Farms

A Closer Look At Vital Farms' Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to December 2023, Vital Farms had an accrual ratio of -0.18. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$39m, well over the US$25.6m it reported in profit. Given that Vital Farms had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of US$39m would seem to be a step in the right direction.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Vital Farms' Profit Performance

Happily for shareholders, Vital Farms produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Because of this, we think Vital Farms' underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! Better yet, its EPS are growing strongly, which is nice to see. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Vital Farms.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Vital Farms' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.