Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Reed's, Inc. (NASDAQ:REED) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Reed's
How Much Debt Does Reed's Carry?
As you can see below, Reed's had US$3.74m of debt at June 2021, down from US$8.39m a year prior. On the flip side, it has US$654.0k in cash leading to net debt of about US$3.08m.
A Look At Reed's' Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Reed's had liabilities of US$11.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$478.0k due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$654.0k in cash and US$5.28m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$5.70m.
Of course, Reed's has a market capitalization of US$62.3m, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Reed's's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
In the last year Reed's wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 23%, to US$45m. With any luck the company will be able to grow its way to profitability.
Caveat Emptor
Even though Reed's managed to grow its top line quite deftly, the cold hard truth is that it is losing money on the EBIT line. Its EBIT loss was a whopping US$13m. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. However, it doesn't help that it burned through US$15m of cash over the last year. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Reed's has 5 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About OTCPK:REED
Reed's
Engages in the manufacture and distribution of natural beverages in the United States.
Moderate and slightly overvalued.