Results: National Beverage Corp. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a mediocre week for National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$84.40 in the week since its latest quarterly results. National Beverage missed revenue estimates by 3.7%, with sales of US$272m, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.01 beat expectations, coming in 7.4% ahead of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on National Beverage after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for National Beverage

Taking into account the latest results, National Beverage's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2021 to be US$1.06b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 2.4% to US$3.54. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.46 in 2021. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

The average price target increased 8.1% to US$80.25, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is more important to the company's valuation than its revenue. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values National Beverage at US$90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$61.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that National Beverage's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 0.8% increase next year well below the historical 8.4%p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that National Beverage is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards National Beverage following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple National Beverage analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of National Beverage's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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