National Beverage (FIZZ): A Fresh Look at Valuation as Shares Drift and Fundamentals Hold Steady

National Beverage (FIZZ) shares have been moving in recent trading, catching the attention of many investors looking for steady consumer staples plays. The stock has had some ups and downs over the past month, inviting a closer look at its current position.

See our latest analysis for National Beverage.

Looking beyond the day-to-day moves, National Beverage’s share price has drifted slightly over the past year. This reflects muted momentum as investors weigh its steady fundamentals against a changing consumer staples backdrop. Over a five-year stretch, however, the company’s total shareholder return remains solidly positive. This suggests that long-term holders have still been rewarded, even as short-term price action has been subdued.

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With shares drifting but fundamentals remaining steady, the big question for investors is whether National Beverage is trading below its true value or if the future growth story has already been fully priced in.

Price-to-Earnings of 19x: Is it justified?

National Beverage trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19, which puts it above the global beverage industry's average of 17.6x and well below its closest peers' average of 56.8x. The current share price of $37.71 reflects this higher multiple in a sector known for steady profits and strong brands.

The P/E ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of company earnings. For consumer staples like beverages, a higher P/E can indicate anticipation of future growth or a premium for perceived resilience. In National Beverage's case, ongoing profitability and consistent returns may explain the above-industry average multiple.

While the company's P/E suggests a premium versus the broader beverage industry, it is still attractively valued compared to peers trading at much steeper multiples. This gap hints that the market sees stable, but moderate, future growth at National Beverage. If sentiment shifts toward a higher growth outlook, or if the market seeks safer, consistent earners in uncertain times, this multiple could move closer to those of higher-valued peers.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 19x (OVERVALUED)

However, weaker revenue growth and a recent dip in total returns could challenge the expectation of steady value ahead for National Beverage.

Find out about the key risks to this National Beverage narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model

While the price-to-earnings ratio suggests National Beverage trades above the industry average, the SWS DCF model presents a different perspective. According to this discounted cash flow analysis, National Beverage shares are actually trading about 32% below the estimated fair value of $55.39. This method focuses on cash flows instead of earnings and challenges the idea that the stock is fully valued on multiples alone. Is the market overlooking real long-term value here?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out National Beverage for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own National Beverage Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to analyze the numbers yourself, you can build your own view of National Beverage in just a few minutes, and Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding National Beverage.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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