Celsius Holdings (CELH): Assessing Valuation Following Morgan Stanley Upgrade and PepsiCo Distribution Expansion

Momentum picked up for Celsius Holdings (CELH) when Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock, highlighting reaccelerating sales growth and the strategic transition of Alani Nu to PepsiCo’s distribution network. This move has captured investors’ attention.

See our latest analysis for Celsius Holdings.

That boost from Morgan Stanley comes following a sharp sales rebound and fresh records for Celsius. The Alani Nu move and PepsiCo partnership are fueling optimism about expanded market reach. The latest share price is $58.90, and momentum is building as total shareholder return is up nearly 1% over the past year. Longer-term holders are still seeing substantial gains from the past five years.

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With shares still trading below analyst price targets despite a record rebound and stronger partnerships, investors are left wondering if Celsius Holdings is undervalued at current levels, or if the market has already factored in all the upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.1% Undervalued

The most popular narrative places Celsius Holdings' fair value notably above its last closing price, suggesting there could be more runway ahead. This perspective leans on ambitious growth targets and recent strategic wins that have reshaped expectations.

Expansion of distribution and increased activation through leading partners (PepsiCo in North America, Suntory internationally) is accelerating store count, new market entries, and international growth (27% YoY). This provides exposure to broader health and wellness trends globally and supports expectations for long-term revenue expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

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Result: Fair Value of $66.28 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising input costs and growing reliance on large distribution partners could quickly put pressure on margins and challenge the optimistic growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Celsius Holdings narrative.

Another View: Industry Multiples Raise a Caution Flag

Looking beyond fair value estimates, Celsius Holdings is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 9.1x. That is significantly higher than both its peers’ average of 1.5x, the US beverage industry average of 2.2x, and well above the fair ratio of 4.2x that the market could move towards. This premium signals optimism, but also heightens valuation risk if future growth fails to deliver. Could recent momentum be clouding perceptions of value?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Celsius Holdings Narrative

If the prevailing view does not fit your perspective or you prefer a hands-on approach with the data, crafting your own take on Celsius Holdings is just a few minutes away. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Celsius Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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