Mission Produce, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVO) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Mission Produce, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVO), which a week ago released some disappointing annual results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$954m missing analyst predictions by 3.1%. Additionally, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.04 per share, larger than the analyst had forecast prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Mission Produce

Taking into account the latest results, the sole analyst covering Mission Produce provided consensus estimates of US$883.9m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 7.3% decline over the past 12 months. Mission Produce is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.24 per share. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$944.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.56 in 2024. The analyst seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analyst made no major changes to their price target of US$12.25, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Mission Produce's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mission Produce's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Mission Produce's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for Mission Produce going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Mission Produce that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.