Alico, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALCO) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Alico, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALCO) just released its latest second-quarter report and things are not looking great. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 55% lower than the analyst predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$2.07. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Alico

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alico's sole analyst is for revenues of US$50.3m in 2024. This would reflect a sizeable 26% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 45% to US$2.89 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$80.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.19 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a large cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 9.4% to US$35.00, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Alico's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 58% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 16% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.9% per year. Not only are Alico's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analyst is also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Alico's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Alico you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.