MEG Energy Corp.

OTCPK:MEGE.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.2b

MEG Energy Valuation

Is MEGE.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEGE.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEGE.F ($15.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($39.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEGE.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEGE.F?

Key metric: As MEGE.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MEGE.F. This is calculated by dividing MEGE.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MEGE.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsCA$504.00m
Market CapCA$6.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MEGE.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MEGE.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.6x
MUR Murphy Oil
8.8x10.8%US$4.2b
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
11.7x3.0%US$4.5b
CRC California Resources
8.7x-12.6%US$4.6b
SM SM Energy
5.2x3.9%US$4.3b
MEGE.F MEG Energy
12x-0.5%US$6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MEGE.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (8.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MEGE.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MEGE.F 12.0xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies17PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MEGE.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEGE.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEGE.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MEGE.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEGE.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.95
US$22.53
+41.2%
10.6%US$26.48US$18.12n/a15
Dec ’25US$17.95
US$23.15
+29.0%
10.3%US$27.10US$18.54n/a15
Nov ’25US$18.00
US$23.64
+31.3%
10.1%US$27.30US$18.68n/a15
Oct ’25US$19.54
US$24.83
+27.1%
10.3%US$28.17US$19.27n/a15
Sep ’25US$19.93
US$25.26
+26.8%
8.4%US$28.45US$20.43n/a15
Aug ’25US$20.10
US$25.10
+24.9%
8.9%US$28.87US$20.21n/a15
Jul ’25US$21.40
US$25.45
+18.9%
8.9%US$29.20US$20.44n/a15
Jun ’25US$21.69
US$25.55
+17.8%
9.5%US$29.32US$20.52n/a15
May ’25US$21.99
US$25.52
+16.0%
9.7%US$29.28US$20.50n/a14
Apr ’25US$23.19
US$23.84
+2.8%
10.5%US$27.32US$19.20n/a14
Mar ’25US$21.63
US$22.89
+5.8%
10.2%US$25.81US$19.18n/a14
Feb ’25US$18.30
US$22.65
+23.8%
9.9%US$26.12US$19.40n/a13
Jan ’25US$17.92
US$22.97
+28.2%
8.3%US$27.11US$20.33n/a13
Dec ’24US$19.00
US$22.72
+19.6%
7.8%US$26.52US$19.89US$17.9513
Nov ’24US$19.83
US$22.05
+11.2%
7.7%US$25.96US$19.47US$18.0013
Oct ’24US$19.49
US$20.58
+5.6%
10.4%US$24.46US$17.05US$19.5413
Sep ’24US$18.78
US$19.48
+3.7%
8.7%US$23.53US$16.91US$19.9313
Aug ’24US$17.92
US$19.70
+9.9%
9.0%US$22.67US$16.24US$20.1013
Jul ’24US$15.85
US$19.31
+21.8%
8.9%US$21.89US$15.85US$21.4013
Jun ’24US$15.83
US$19.04
+20.2%
10.2%US$22.07US$15.45US$21.6913
May ’24US$16.40
US$19.50
+18.9%
10.8%US$23.14US$15.68US$21.9913
Apr ’24US$16.07
US$18.09
+12.6%
9.8%US$21.84US$15.29US$23.1913
Mar ’24US$16.17
US$17.88
+10.6%
12.5%US$22.06US$13.97US$21.6313
Feb ’24US$16.31
US$17.72
+8.6%
16.0%US$25.55US$14.28US$18.3014
Jan ’24US$13.93
US$17.64
+26.7%
15.8%US$24.99US$13.23US$17.9214
Dec ’23US$14.28
US$17.77
+24.4%
14.8%US$25.02US$13.98US$19.0014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/29 10:40
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

MEG Energy Corp. is covered by 39 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Thomas DriscollBarclays
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research