MEG Energy Corp.

OTCPK:MEGE.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.0b

MEG Energy Valuation

Is MEGE.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEGE.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEGE.F ($19.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($37.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEGE.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEGE.F?

Key metric: As MEGE.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MEGE.F. This is calculated by dividing MEGE.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MEGE.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.9x
EarningsCA$504.00m
Market CapCA$7.02b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MEGE.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MEGE.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.4x
MUR Murphy Oil
10.2x12.9%US$4.9b
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
14.7x3.6%US$5.7b
CRC California Resources
10.3x-13.4%US$5.5b
SM SM Energy
6.4x5.2%US$5.3b
MEGE.F MEG Energy
13.9x-1.8%US$7.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MEGE.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the peer average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MEGE.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MEGE.F 13.9xIndustry Avg. 11.6xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MEGE.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEGE.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEGE.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.9x
Fair PE Ratio9.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MEGE.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEGE.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$19.02
US$23.58
+24.0%
10.0%US$27.21US$18.62n/a15
Nov ’25US$18.00
US$23.78
+32.1%
10.1%US$27.46US$18.79n/a15
Oct ’25US$19.54
US$24.83
+27.1%
10.3%US$28.17US$19.27n/a15
Sep ’25US$19.93
US$25.26
+26.8%
8.4%US$28.45US$20.43n/a15
Aug ’25US$20.10
US$25.10
+24.9%
8.9%US$28.87US$20.21n/a15
Jul ’25US$21.40
US$25.45
+18.9%
8.9%US$29.20US$20.44n/a15
Jun ’25US$21.69
US$25.55
+17.8%
9.5%US$29.32US$20.52n/a15
May ’25US$21.99
US$25.52
+16.0%
9.7%US$29.28US$20.50n/a14
Apr ’25US$23.19
US$23.84
+2.8%
10.5%US$27.32US$19.20n/a14
Mar ’25US$21.63
US$22.89
+5.8%
10.2%US$25.81US$19.18n/a14
Feb ’25US$18.30
US$22.65
+23.8%
9.9%US$26.12US$19.40n/a13
Jan ’25US$17.92
US$22.97
+28.2%
8.3%US$27.11US$20.33n/a13
Dec ’24US$19.00
US$22.72
+19.6%
7.8%US$26.52US$19.89n/a13
Nov ’24US$19.83
US$22.05
+11.2%
7.7%US$25.96US$19.47US$18.0013
Oct ’24US$19.49
US$20.58
+5.6%
10.4%US$24.46US$17.05US$19.5413
Sep ’24US$18.78
US$19.48
+3.7%
8.7%US$23.53US$16.91US$19.9313
Aug ’24US$17.92
US$19.70
+9.9%
9.0%US$22.67US$16.24US$20.1013
Jul ’24US$15.85
US$19.31
+21.8%
8.9%US$21.89US$15.85US$21.4013
Jun ’24US$15.83
US$19.04
+20.2%
10.2%US$22.07US$15.45US$21.6913
May ’24US$16.40
US$19.50
+18.9%
10.8%US$23.14US$15.68US$21.9913
Apr ’24US$16.07
US$18.09
+12.6%
9.8%US$21.84US$15.29US$23.1913
Mar ’24US$16.17
US$17.88
+10.6%
12.5%US$22.06US$13.97US$21.6313
Feb ’24US$16.31
US$17.72
+8.6%
16.0%US$25.55US$14.28US$18.3014
Jan ’24US$13.93
US$17.64
+26.7%
15.8%US$24.99US$13.23US$17.9214
Dec ’23US$14.28
US$17.77
+24.4%
14.8%US$25.02US$13.98US$19.0014
Nov ’23US$14.99
US$17.02
+13.6%
17.0%US$24.93US$13.20US$19.8314

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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