Athabasca Oil Corporation

OTCPK:ATHO.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.1b

Athabasca Oil Valuation

Is ATHO.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATHO.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATHO.F ($3.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($35.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATHO.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATHO.F?

Key metric: As ATHO.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATHO.F. This is calculated by dividing ATHO.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATHO.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.6x
EarningsCA$230.91m
Market CapCA$2.89b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATHO.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATHO.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.1x
KOS Kosmos Energy
8.7x5.2%US$1.9b
TALO Talos Energy
27.8x-82.6%US$2.1b
DMLP Dorchester Minerals
14.4xn/aUS$1.6b
KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners
33.5x32.4%US$1.5b
ATHO.F Athabasca Oil
12.6x1.7%US$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATHO.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the peer average (21.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATHO.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
ATHO.F 12.6xIndustry Avg. 11.8xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATHO.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATHO.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATHO.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.6x
Fair PE Ratio9.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATHO.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATHO.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$3.93
US$4.51
+14.8%
9.4%US$5.37US$3.94n/a10
Nov ’25US$3.61
US$4.51
+25.0%
9.4%US$5.37US$3.94n/a10
Oct ’25US$3.70
US$4.73
+27.7%
9.6%US$5.56US$4.08n/a8
Sep ’25US$4.00
US$4.86
+21.6%
8.4%US$5.51US$4.40n/a8
Aug ’25US$4.02
US$4.79
+19.2%
8.4%US$5.42US$4.34n/a8
Jul ’25US$3.82
US$4.56
+19.4%
7.7%US$5.11US$4.01n/a8
Jun ’25US$3.72
US$4.51
+21.2%
7.4%US$5.12US$4.02n/a9
May ’25US$3.37
US$4.49
+33.3%
6.1%US$4.94US$4.03n/a9
Apr ’25US$3.85
US$4.38
+14.0%
6.1%US$4.96US$4.04n/a7
Mar ’25US$3.69
US$4.06
+9.9%
6.4%US$4.43US$3.69n/a7
Feb ’25US$3.21
US$3.92
+22.1%
5.1%US$4.10US$3.55n/a7
Jan ’25US$3.16
US$3.87
+22.6%
6.2%US$4.11US$3.55n/a7
Dec ’24US$2.83
US$3.72
+31.4%
7.3%US$4.20US$3.29n/a8
Nov ’24US$3.03
US$3.65
+20.5%
6.4%US$3.97US$3.25US$3.618
Oct ’24US$3.20
US$3.50
+9.5%
11.1%US$4.08US$2.96US$3.708
Sep ’24US$2.87
US$3.20
+11.4%
8.6%US$3.69US$2.95US$4.006
Aug ’24US$2.57
US$3.10
+20.6%
4.6%US$3.39US$3.01US$4.026
Jul ’24US$2.15
US$2.80
+30.1%
8.2%US$3.02US$2.45US$3.826
Jun ’24US$2.15
US$2.79
+29.7%
11.0%US$3.31US$2.39US$3.726
May ’24US$2.43
US$2.96
+21.6%
11.2%US$3.36US$2.43US$3.376
Apr ’24US$2.39
US$2.73
+14.4%
10.9%US$3.28US$2.37US$3.856
Mar ’24US$2.19
US$2.46
+12.4%
8.8%US$2.80US$2.24US$3.695
Feb ’24US$2.12
US$2.43
+14.6%
9.7%US$2.80US$2.24US$3.215
Jan ’24US$1.79
US$2.34
+30.9%
9.1%US$2.75US$2.20US$3.165
Dec ’23US$2.00
US$2.37
+18.3%
12.9%US$2.82US$1.88US$2.835
Nov ’23US$2.07
US$2.35
+13.3%
9.1%US$2.75US$2.20US$3.035

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Civitas Resources

US$5.0b

An exploration and production company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas in the Rocky Mountain region, primarily in the Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin of Colorado.

CIVI

US$52.80

7D

3.2%

1Y

-23.5%

DorianG

US$1.1b

Engages in the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas through its LPG tankers worldwide.

LPG

US$25.74

7D

-1.0%

1Y

-41.6%

International Petroleum

CA$1.9b

Explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas.

IPCF.F

CA$10.45

7D

1.5%

1Y

3.6%