Athabasca Oil Corporation

OTCPK:ATHO.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.4b

Athabasca Oil Valuation

Is ATHO.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of ATHO.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Fair Value: ATHO.F ($5.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($7.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATHO.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATHO.F?

Key metric: As ATHO.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATHO.F. This is calculated by dividing ATHO.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATHO.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.3x
EarningsCA$462.85m
Market CapCA$3.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATHO.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATHO.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average36.7x
NOG Northern Oil and Gas
11.9x18.53%US$2.2b
SM SM Energy
2.9x16.64%US$2.1b
MNR Mach Natural Resources
17.4x15.81%US$1.9b
CRGY Crescent Energy
114.6x31.98%US$2.7b
ATHO.F Athabasca Oil
7.3x-38.09%US$3.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATHO.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (36.7x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATHO.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MVO MV Oil Trust
1.7xn/aUS$25.53m
SAFX XCF Global
0.2xn/aUS$22.48m
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
RUBI Rubico
0.4xn/aUS$2.70m
ATHO.F 7.3xIndustry Avg. 13.7xNo. of Companies21PE0816243240+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATHO.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATHO.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATHO.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.3x
Fair PE Ratio8.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATHO.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATHO.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$5.03
US$5.61
+11.52%
9.76%US$6.47US$4.67n/a9
Jan ’27US$5.12
US$5.77
+12.65%
7.29%US$6.19US$5.10n/a9
Dec ’26US$5.52
US$5.35
-3.16%
7.03%US$6.06US$4.99n/a9
Nov ’26US$4.92
US$5.31
+7.88%
5.88%US$5.70US$4.99n/a9
Oct ’26US$4.82
US$4.96
+2.93%
10.22%US$5.74US$4.30n/a9
Sep ’26US$4.38
US$4.79
+9.28%
8.77%US$5.45US$4.00n/a9
Aug ’26US$4.11
US$4.71
+14.63%
9.63%US$5.41US$3.97n/a9
Jul ’26US$4.18
US$4.57
+9.41%
9.36%US$5.14US$4.04n/a9
Jun ’26US$3.75
US$4.41
+17.47%
9.09%US$5.07US$3.80n/a9
May ’26US$3.23
US$4.39
+36.05%
9.09%US$5.06US$3.79n/a9
Apr ’26US$3.92
US$4.52
+15.39%
8.63%US$4.89US$3.84n/a9
Mar ’26US$3.28
US$4.44
+35.24%
10.31%US$5.19US$3.81n/a8
Feb ’26US$3.36
US$4.50
+33.93%
10.05%US$5.21US$3.82n/a9
Jan ’26US$3.70
US$4.38
+18.45%
8.30%US$4.85US$3.81US$5.1210
Dec ’25US$3.65
US$4.51
+23.68%
9.83%US$5.33US$3.91US$5.5210
Nov ’25US$3.61
US$4.51
+25.04%
9.36%US$5.37US$3.94US$4.9210
Oct ’25US$3.70
US$4.73
+27.71%
9.61%US$5.56US$4.08US$4.828
Sep ’25US$4.00
US$4.86
+21.58%
8.44%US$5.51US$4.40US$4.388
Aug ’25US$4.02
US$4.79
+19.20%
8.44%US$5.42US$4.34US$4.118
Jul ’25US$3.82
US$4.56
+19.42%
7.75%US$5.11US$4.01US$4.188
Jun ’25US$3.72
US$4.51
+21.21%
7.40%US$5.12US$4.02US$3.759
May ’25US$3.37
US$4.49
+33.33%
6.10%US$4.94US$4.03US$3.239
Apr ’25US$3.85
US$4.38
+13.97%
6.11%US$4.96US$4.04US$3.927
Mar ’25US$3.69
US$4.06
+9.93%
6.43%US$4.43US$3.69US$3.287
Feb ’25US$3.21
US$3.92
+22.07%
5.09%US$4.10US$3.55US$3.367
Jan ’25US$3.16
US$3.87
+22.59%
6.17%US$4.11US$3.55US$3.707
US$5.62
Fair Value
10.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/16 16:35
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/16 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Athabasca Oil Corporation is covered by 28 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Grant HoferBarclays
Tariq SaadBMO Capital Markets Equity Research