Expro Group Holdings N.V. Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Expro Group Holdings N.V. (NYSE:XPRO) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 12% to US$17.56. Revenues came in at US$334m, in line with estimates, while Expro Group Holdings reported a statutory loss of US$0.06 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Expro Group Holdings

Following the latest results, Expro Group Holdings' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.51b in 2023. This would be a meaningful 13% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Expro Group Holdings forecast to report a statutory profit of US$1.35 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.07 in 2023. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a sizeable expansion in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$25.14, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Expro Group Holdings analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$22.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Expro Group Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Expro Group Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 41% over the past year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.7% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Expro Group Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Expro Group Holdings following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$25.14, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Expro Group Holdings analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Expro Group Holdings .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.