Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to US$107 in the past week. Exxon Mobil reported US$82b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.64 beat expectations, being 4.5% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.

Following last week's earnings report, Exxon Mobil's 20 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$327.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 6.6% to US$6.80 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$327.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.74 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$124, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exxon Mobil at US$140 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Exxon Mobil's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Exxon Mobil's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Exxon Mobil going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Exxon Mobil is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.