Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to US$103 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$83b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$1.76 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Exxon Mobil's 20 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$346.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 10% to US$6.89 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$331.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.64 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

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Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$124, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Exxon Mobil analyst has a price target of US$140 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$93.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Exxon Mobil shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Exxon Mobil's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Exxon Mobil is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Exxon Mobil following these results. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Exxon Mobil analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Exxon Mobil's balance sheet, and whether we think Exxon Mobil is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.