Ultrapar Participações Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of UGP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

UGP ($2.57) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($3.16)

Is UGP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UGP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UGP ($2.57) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($3.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UGP is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UGP?

Key metric: As UGP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UGP. This is calculated by dividing UGP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UGP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	6.7x
Earnings	R$2.62b
Market Cap	R$18.28b

UGP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.8x
PEG Ratio	2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UGP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UGP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	33.1x
NS NuStar Energy	78.9x	66.9%	US$2.8b
HEP Holly Energy Partners	10.8x	10.1%	US$2.6b
EE Excelerate Energy	27.4x	18.1%	US$3.3b
NFE New Fortress Energy	15.3x	-23.4%	US$3.0b
UGP Ultrapar Participações	6.7x	3.4%	US$18.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UGP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the peer average (33.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UGP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum	0.09x	n/a	US$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy	0.03x	-10.3%	US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas	n/a	n/a	US$6.00

No more companies available in this PE range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UGP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UGP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UGP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.7x
Fair PE Ratio	10.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UGP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/18 09:24
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is covered by 24 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Daniel Cobucci	BB Banco de Investimento S.A.
Leonardo Marcondes	BofA Global Research
Vicente Falanga Neto	Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários