Ultrapar Participações S.A.

NYSE:UGP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.1b

Ultrapar Participações Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Ultrapar Participações is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.4% and 3.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.5% in 3 years.

Key information

6.4%

Earnings growth rate

5.7%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth12.0%
Revenue growth rate3.1%
Future return on equity13.5%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated09 May 2025

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Ultrapar: The Worst Is Over

Apr 18

Ultrapar Q4: Still Not Convincing, But The Case Has Improved (Rating Upgrade)

Mar 11

Ultrapar's Turnaround Complete: Time To Consider A Buy Rating

Aug 29

Ultrapar: Potential Regulatory Problems And Unattractive Valuation

Jun 13

Ultrapar: The Peak Is Here

Apr 01

Ultrapar: It Seems Time To Move On (Rating Downgrade)

Dec 11

Ultrapar's Impressive Q3 Performance Raises Valuation Concerns

Nov 28

Ultrapar: Caution Amidst Brazil's Uncertain Fuel Pricing

Sep 11

Making Sense Of Ultrapar's Run-Up And Why It's Still A Buy

Jul 04

Ultrapar Participacoes reports Q4 2022 results

Feb 15

Ultrapar Continues Over Investing But Is A Speculative Play On Brazil

Jan 13

Ultrapar: On Hold Despite The Ambitious New Capex Plan

Dec 22

Ultrapar Participacoes GAAP EPS of R$0.07, revenue of R$39.48B

Nov 11

Ultrapar Likely Has No Margin Of Safety And Should Deleverage

Sep 13

Third Avenue - Ultrapar: Lot Of Room For Valuation Upside

May 25

Ultrapar: Better To Await Developments

Jan 15

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:UGP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (BRL Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027148,1802,6682,8343,94610
12/31/2026139,0122,2692,8043,87112
12/31/2025138,4751,7952,9983,5339
3/31/2025136,4322,2652,4754,319N/A
12/31/2024133,4992,3631,9483,736N/A
9/30/2024131,5182,6201,6433,266N/A
6/30/2024128,6442,8332,8734,387N/A
3/31/2024125,8932,6092,5953,988N/A
12/31/2023126,0492,4402,5623,850N/A
9/30/2023128,5852,1712,4883,607N/A
6/30/2023135,3961,4771,8142,998N/A
3/31/2023142,6831,6531,3202,538N/A
12/31/2022143,6351,4997982,005N/A
9/30/2022139,5821,000-831,190N/A
6/30/2022129,739986-701501N/A
3/31/2022119,206708-271,213N/A
12/31/2021109,7337851,3202,586N/A
9/30/202193,8615991,3402,390N/A
6/30/202185,1717081,5992,613N/A
3/31/202174,7016371,4142,335N/A
12/31/202074,0586132,2333,138N/A
9/30/202081,6882011,9803,106N/A
6/30/202084,1292332,0673,200N/A
3/31/202089,9463012,2163,394N/A
12/31/201989,2983741,7532,925N/A
9/30/201989,1021,1482,7773,896N/A
6/30/201989,7331,1772,6003,787N/A
3/31/201990,6861,3102,1903,464N/A
12/31/201890,6981,150N/A2,889N/A
9/30/201888,5791,037N/A1,814N/A
6/30/201885,0861,254N/A1,399N/A
3/31/201881,4371,248N/A1,372N/A
12/31/201779,2301,527N/A1,739N/A
9/30/201776,9681,568N/A2,458N/A
6/30/201776,0711,400N/A2,791N/A
3/31/201776,3731,529N/A2,945N/A
12/31/201677,3531,562N/A2,514N/A
9/30/201678,8481,620N/A3,054N/A
6/30/201678,5631,539N/A3,218N/A
3/31/201677,7761,504N/A2,785N/A
12/31/201575,6551,503N/A3,202N/A
9/30/201572,8971,379N/A2,750N/A
6/30/201571,0371,409N/A2,741N/A
3/31/201569,1931,380N/A2,927N/A
12/31/201467,7361,242N/A2,651N/A
9/30/201466,1411,245N/A2,295N/A
6/30/201464,7501,244N/A2,193N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: UGP's forecast earnings growth (6.4% per year) is above the savings rate (2.8%).

Earnings vs Market: UGP's earnings (6.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: UGP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: UGP's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: UGP's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: UGP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/09 05:27
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/09 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is covered by 25 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Daniel CobucciBB Banco de Investimento S.A.
Leonardo MarcondesBofA Global Research
Vicente Falanga NetoBradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários