Tidewater (TDW): Valuation Perspectives Following Q3 Results and Guidance Update

Tidewater (TDW) just reported its third-quarter earnings, revealing a minor per-share loss related to a one-off debt expense. Despite this, revenue exceeded forecasts due to stronger day rates and higher fleet utilization.

See our latest analysis for Tidewater.

Tidewater’s share price has experienced its share of ups and downs lately. The solid Q3 revenue beat did little to offset investor unease over the narrower 2025 guidance and what some view as a cautious 2026 outlook. Even so, after a turbulent few months, the 1-year total shareholder return is still in positive territory at 1.8%, and its longer-term track record remains impressive with a 62.6% gain over three years and a 421% increase over five years, indicating that momentum, while choppy, is far from spent.

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With the stock trading well below analyst price targets and significant long-term gains behind it, investors now face a crossroads. Is Tidewater undervalued at current levels, or has the market already factored in every bit of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.2% Undervalued

At $52.66, Tidewater’s latest close sits solidly below the most popular narrative’s fair value estimate of $60. This substantial gap raises eyebrows, setting up a potentially pivotal story driven by projected earnings power and the market’s faith in a long-term turnaround.

"Fleet modernization and disciplined operational execution have delivered three consecutive quarters of 50%+ gross margin, underpinning the expectation of structurally higher operating margins and net earnings as the company benefits from lower repair/maintenance costs and higher reliability."

Read the complete narrative.

How do analysts see such a rally from here? There is a blueprint involving rapid margin expansion, efficiency tailwinds, and a profit ramp that few expect from an offshore operator. The precise numbers fueling this underappreciated opportunity might surprise you. Discover the details that have analysts sticking to their valuation guns. Find out why this narrative is so compelling in the latest update.

Result: Fair Value of $60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, investors should remember that delayed offshore projects or failed merger integrations could quickly blunt Tidewater's expected momentum. This could present challenges to the optimistic outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Tidewater narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Perspective

Taking a closer look at Tidewater's valuation using its current price-to-earnings ratio, the picture shifts. At 17.2x, it is more expensive than both the industry average of 16.9x and the fair ratio of 16.1x. This suggests investors may be paying a premium that does not yet guarantee stronger returns.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Tidewater Narrative

If you find yourself unconvinced by these narratives or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, you can put together your own story in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Tidewater.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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