Assessing PBF Energy's Valuation Following Martinez Restart Plans and Renewables Expansion

PBF Energy (PBF) plans to fully restart its Martinez refinery by the end of 2025, following major demolition and repairs. The company is also reporting progress on cost-saving efforts and renewable diesel production expansion.

See our latest analysis for PBF Energy.

PBF Energy shares have seen some volatility, with a 17.9% gain over the past 90 days but a 1-year total shareholder return of -10.7%. While the recent refinery news has caught some attention, momentum appears to be building again as the company sharpens its focus on core operations and renewables.

If these kinds of strategic moves have you curious about what else is stirring in the energy sector, it could be a good time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

But with shares still trading below recent analyst price targets and earnings growth outpacing revenue, investors are left to wonder: is there real value on offer here, or is the market fully reflecting PBF's future prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.6% Overvalued

With PBF Energy’s most followed narrative assigning a fair value of $25.75 per share, the latest closing price of $28.73 sits above that estimate. The narrative highlights how recent margin expansion, cost controls, and tight industry supply collectively shape analyst sentiment on where the stock should trade next.

Net global demand for refined products is expected to exceed net refining capacity additions in the coming years, driven by ongoing population growth and underinvestment in new refining capacity outside North America. This tightening supply backdrop should support strong utilization, pricing power, and higher revenues for efficient U.S. refiners like PBF. Recent and upcoming refinery closures in key markets (California, UK, Europe) are consolidating supply, raising barriers to entry and making PBF's existing domestic assets more valuable in a structurally tighter market. This supports improved crack spreads, driving margin and earnings upside.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what gives PBF’s valuation muscle during a period of industry turbulence? Behind this price is a daring growth trajectory, powered by a mix of cost savings, asset restarts, and bullish forecasts on profit expansion. Can the company deliver, especially with these ambitious financial targets underpinning the story? Try to uncover which assumptions could make or break this case by diving into the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $25.75 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing regulatory scrutiny and heavy reliance on traditional fuel demand remain persistent risks that could quickly challenge even the most bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this PBF Energy narrative.

Build Your Own PBF Energy Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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