Par Pacific Holdings (PARR): Revisiting Valuation After a Strong Year-to-Date Rally and Recent Pullback

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has been on a wild ride lately, slipping over the past week and month but still showing strong gains this year. This naturally raises questions about what is really driving the stock.

See our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings.

After such a strong run, with the share price now at $38.95 and a year to date share price return above 130 percent, the recent pullback looks more like momentum cooling than a complete change in the long term story. This is especially the case given the still impressive one year total shareholder return.

If Par Pacific’s surge has you thinking about what else might be setting up for the next leg higher, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares trading below analyst estimates and at a meaningful intrinsic discount despite softer recent growth, investors face a key question: is Par Pacific still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future gains?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 17.8% Undervalued

With Par Pacific closing at $38.95 against a narrative fair value of $47.38, the story frames today’s weakness as a mispriced opportunity built on improving quality.

The strategic partnership with Mitsubishi and ENEOS, along with the upcoming SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) project launch, positions Par Pacific for growth in renewable fuels. This enhances market access, leverages global feedstock procurement expertise, and is expected to positively contribute to earnings and net margin expansion starting in 2026.

Industry wide transition towards renewables, with Par Pacific ahead on internal renewable projects and cost effective compliance, increases the probability of regulatory incentives and lower ongoing compliance costs, underpinning long term net earnings strength.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how shrinking revenues can still support a higher value? The narrative leans on rising profitability and a future earnings multiple that might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $47.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated refining assets and elevated leverage mean that unexpected outages or tighter regulations could quickly erode margins and challenge that undervalued thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Par Pacific Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Par Pacific Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Par Pacific Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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