Par Pacific Holdings (PARR): Assessing Valuation After Strong Run and Evolving Growth Plans

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) shares have seen some movement recently, piquing the interest of investors who track energy stocks for patterns and valuation opportunities. With the company’s performance shifting, many are considering potential next steps.

See our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings.

After this year’s remarkable run, with a share price return of 104% year-to-date, Par Pacific Holdings is attracting fresh attention as investors respond to shifting sentiment and ongoing updates from the energy sector. While the most recent price movement has been softer, the broader trend highlights substantial momentum after years of solid overall performance. This includes an 86.8% total shareholder return over the last twelve months and a 372.9% gain over five years.

If you’re keeping an eye on which energy stocks have shown strong growth and insider confidence, it might be the perfect moment to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With Par Pacific’s impressive run-up and a current share price still trading below analyst targets, the key question emerges: is there more value to unlock, or is all future growth already reflected in the price?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.1% Undervalued

Par Pacific Holdings closed at $34.05, modestly below the narrative’s estimated fair value of $35.50. This small gap suggests that current market pricing nearly reflects, but slightly lags, the expected upside if the narrative’s projections hold.

The strategic partnership with Mitsubishi and ENEOS, along with the upcoming SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) project launch, positions Par Pacific for growth in renewable fuels. This enhances market access, leverages global feedstock procurement expertise, and is expected to positively contribute to earnings and net margin expansion starting in 2026.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s driving this fair value beyond oil and gas recovery? The real story is locked in big leaps for future earnings, boosted by one soon-to-launch venture. Find out which key assumptions make analysts so optimistic, and see what could set Par Pacific apart in the evolving energy market.

Result: Fair Value of $35.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, as regional regulatory changes or costly outages at older refineries could quickly undermine Par Pacific’s growth story and profitability outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Par Pacific Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Par Pacific Holdings Narrative

If you want to dig deeper, challenge these assumptions, or reach your own conclusion, it only takes a few minutes to build your own perspective. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Par Pacific Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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