Northern Oil and Gas (NOG): Assessing Valuation After Raised 2025 Production Forecasts

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) just raised its oil and total production forecasts for the 2025 fiscal year. This move often signals management’s confidence in future growth and higher potential revenues for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas.

Even with Northern Oil and Gas’ upbeat production outlook for 2025, market sentiment has been mixed. The stock’s share price return has dropped sharply in recent months, with a 1-month share price return of -22.09% and year-to-date return of -42.93%. While long-term shareholders have still seen a huge gain (a five-year total shareholder return of 592%), recent momentum has faded as the market weighs near-term uncertainties against the company’s growth signals.

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With new forecasts pointing to higher production and a share price well below analyst targets, the question for investors is clear: Does Northern Oil and Gas offer value at current levels, or is the market already pricing in tomorrow’s growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 32.9% Undervalued

Northern Oil and Gas is trading notably below its fair value estimate, with the narrative suggesting shares have more upside potential than current prices indicate. This sets up a compelling question for investors weighing the future path against where the market now stands.

The company's disciplined shift toward acquisitions of long-dated, stable production assets amid a volatile commodity environment positions NOG to benefit from continued global energy demand and the ongoing importance of energy security, supporting more resilient long-term revenue and less volatile cash flows.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s the secret sauce in this valuation? The narrative is powered by bold assumptions about future revenue stability and margin resilience. These are numbers that may surprise even seasoned market watchers. Discover how these drivers combine to create a fair value far above today's price.

Result: Fair Value of $32.10 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent commodity price volatility and rising costs could undermine the optimism around Northern Oil and Gas. These factors may potentially weigh on its future valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Northern Oil and Gas narrative.

Build Your Own Northern Oil and Gas Narrative

If you want to challenge this view or take a closer look at the figures behind it, you can create your own narrative from scratch in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Northern Oil and Gas research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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