A Look at Noble (NE) Valuation as Investors Brace for Q3 2025 Earnings and Lowered Forecasts

Noble (NE) heads into its third quarter 2025 earnings announcement on October 27, with investors eyeing whether the company can rebound after missing earnings estimates by nearly 32 percent in the prior quarter.

See our latest analysis for Noble.

Despite a sharp dip following last quarter’s earnings miss, Noble’s share price has rallied over the past week, climbing 11.2 percent. However, its year-to-date share price return remains negative. The one-year total shareholder return edges into positive territory at 1.5 percent, signaling momentum may be picking up as investors position ahead of the latest results.

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This leaves investors asking, after a volatile stretch and lowered forecasts, whether Noble’s current valuation is an overlooked bargain or if the market has already considered the company’s future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 9% Undervalued

Noble’s most-followed narrative prices its shares at $33.60, about 9 percent above the last close of $30.56, fueling debate around whether the market is missing something in the company’s outlook.

Large offshore project pipelines in South America (notably Brazil), West Africa, and other regions are set to drive a rebound in ultra-deepwater drilling activity by late 2026 and 2027 due to global energy demand growth. This is expected to support higher rig utilization and dayrates, which is likely to boost Noble's future revenue and EBITDA.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to uncover why this forecast is so bullish? The assumptions behind this price rely on ambitious growth in both earnings and margins, numbers that could surprise even seasoned energy investors. Ready to see what drives the narrative’s $33.60 price?

Result: Fair Value of $33.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weakness in offshore demand or increased competition could limit Noble’s revenue recovery and cast doubt on the current bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Noble narrative.

Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story

Looking at Noble through the lens of its price-to-earnings ratio, the picture is not quite as clear-cut as the narrative valuation suggests. While Noble's 15.7x earnings multiple is lower than both its peer group average of 17.7x and the Energy Services industry average of 16.3x, it matches the calculated fair ratio of 15.7x exactly. This suggests the market might already be pricing in most of Noble's potential, leaving limited room for upside unless the company beats expectations. Could this be a value trap or is there hidden opportunity?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Noble Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive deeper into the numbers on your own, it’s easy to build your personal thesis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Noble research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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