The Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 5.6% better than analyst forecasts at US$32b. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.24 per share, were 5.6% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Marathon Petroleum. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 15 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum, is for revenues of US$125.1b in 2025. This implies a definite 9.3% reduction in Marathon Petroleum's revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.8% to US$8.21. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$126.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.61 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Marathon Petroleum's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$158, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Marathon Petroleum analyst has a price target of US$183 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$141. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Marathon Petroleum is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Marathon Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Marathon Petroleum following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Marathon Petroleum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Marathon Petroleum going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Marathon Petroleum that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.