Stock Analysis

Does Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Have A Place In Your Dividend Stock Portfolio?

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NYSE:MPC
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Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) a good dividend stock? How can we tell? Dividend paying companies with growing earnings can be highly rewarding in the long term. Yet sometimes, investors buy a popular dividend stock because of its yield, and then lose money if the company's dividend doesn't live up to expectations.

In this case, Marathon Petroleum likely looks attractive to investors, given its 4.4% dividend yield and a payment history of over ten years. It would not be a surprise to discover that many investors buy it for the dividends. Before you buy any stock for its dividend however, you should always remember Warren Buffett's two rules: 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Remember rule #1. We'll run through some checks below to help with this.

Explore this interactive chart for our latest analysis on Marathon Petroleum!

historic-dividend
NYSE:MPC Historic Dividend March 25th 2021

Payout ratios

Companies (usually) pay dividends out of their earnings. If a company is paying more than it earns, the dividend might have to be cut. So we need to form a view on if a company's dividend is sustainable, relative to its net profit after tax. Although Marathon Petroleum pays a dividend, it was loss-making during the past year. When a company recently reported a loss, we should investigate if its cash flows covered the dividend.

Last year, Marathon Petroleum paid a dividend while reporting negative free cash flow. While there may be an explanation, we think this behaviour is generally not sustainable.

Remember, you can always get a snapshot of Marathon Petroleum's latest financial position, by checking our visualisation of its financial health.

Dividend Volatility

Before buying a stock for its income, we want to see if the dividends have been stable in the past, and if the company has a track record of maintaining its dividend. For the purpose of this article, we only scrutinise the last decade of Marathon Petroleum's dividend payments. During this period the dividend has been stable, which could imply the business could have relatively consistent earnings power. During the past 10-year period, the first annual payment was US$0.4 in 2011, compared to US$2.3 last year. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% a year over that time.

It's rare to find a company that has grown its dividends rapidly over 10 years and not had any notable cuts, but Marathon Petroleum has done it, which we really like.

Dividend Growth Potential

While dividend payments have been relatively reliable, it would also be nice if earnings per share (EPS) were growing, as this is essential to maintaining the dividend's purchasing power over the long term. Marathon Petroleum's EPS have fallen by approximately 50% per year during the past five years. A sharp decline in earnings per share is not great from from a dividend perspective, as even conservative payout ratios can come under pressure if earnings fall far enough.

Conclusion

Dividend investors should always want to know if a) a company's dividends are affordable, b) if there is a track record of consistent payments, and c) if the dividend is capable of growing. Marathon Petroleum's dividend is not well covered by free cash flow, plus it paid a dividend while being unprofitable. It's not great to see earnings per share shrinking. The dividends have been relatively consistent, but we wonder for how much longer this will be true. Using these criteria, Marathon Petroleum looks quite suboptimal from a dividend investment perspective.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. To that end, Marathon Petroleum has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our curated list of dividend stocks with a yield above 3%.

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What are the risks and opportunities for Marathon Petroleum?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States.

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Rewards

  • Trading at 8.8% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings grew by 1021.4% over the past year

Risks

  • Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 40.8% per year for the next 3 years

  • Has a high level of debt

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