Assessing Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) Valuation After 2025 EBITDA Guidance Cut and Kings Landing Project Delays

Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) is back in focus after disappointing third quarter 2025 results led management to cut 2025 EBITDA guidance, citing operational hiccups and delays at the key Kings Landing project.

See our latest analysis for Kinetik Holdings.

The guidance cut helps explain why Kinetik’s 1 year total shareholder return is down sharply. The stock has bounced with a 7 day share price return of 9.27 percent, suggesting near term sentiment is stabilising but longer term momentum has faded.

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So with Kinetik now trading well below consensus targets but facing real execution risk on Kings Landing, is the recent sell off setting up a value entry point, or is the market rightly discounting future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.1% Undervalued

Compared to the last close at $37, the most popular narrative suggests Kinetik’s long term fair value sits meaningfully higher, anchored by major growth projects and structural demand tailwinds.

Kinetik's upcoming and recently completed infrastructure projects in the Northern Delaware Basin, especially Kings Landing and the associated acid gas injection capacity, are expected to unlock significant incremental volumes of treated sour gas, supporting multiyear revenue and earnings growth as producers ramp up drilling and send higher volumes through Kinetik's systems.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how aggressive volume ramp assumptions, margin expansion, and a richer future earnings multiple combine to justify that upside, and what has to go right to get there? Read on to unpack the full narrative behind this valuation call.

Result: Fair Value of $46.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent commodity price volatility and execution risk at Kings Landing could derail margin expansion and delay the earnings ramp embedded in this valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Kinetik Holdings narrative.

Another View, Market Ratio Risks

While the narrative points to upside, Kinetik’s current price to earnings ratio of 92.8 times is far richer than both its peer average of 30.5 times and a fair ratio of 23.5 times. If sentiment cools, a shift toward that lower fair ratio could mean painful multiple compression for shareholders.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Kinetik Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Kinetik Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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