The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Kinder Morgan's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Kinder Morgan had US$32.1b of debt, at December 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Healthy Is Kinder Morgan's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Kinder Morgan had liabilities of US$7.22b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$32.1b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$83.0m and US$1.50b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$37.7b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's massive market capitalization of US$37.7b, we think shareholders really should watch Kinder Morgan's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While Kinder Morgan's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.9) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.4, suggesting high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. Fortunately, Kinder Morgan grew its EBIT by 5.3% in the last year, slowly shrinking its debt relative to earnings. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Kinder Morgan's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kinder Morgan produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 71% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
Kinder Morgan's net debt to EBITDA and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Kinder Morgan is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Kinder Morgan (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:KMI
Kinder Morgan
Operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in North America.
Proven track record low.