TechnipFMC (FTI) Valuation Check as New Chevron and Ithaca Subsea Contracts Boost Growth Story

TechnipFMC (FTI) just added two meaningful wins to its backlog, landing Chevron’s Gorgon Stage 3 Subsea 2.0 systems and Ithaca Energy’s flexible riser work on the Captain field in the U.K. North Sea.

See our latest analysis for TechnipFMC.

The market seems to agree these wins matter, with TechnipFMC’s latest share price at $44.38 and a strong year to date share price return of around 50 percent. This feeds into a powerful three year total shareholder return above 270 percent and suggests momentum is still very much on TechnipFMC’s side.

If this kind of contract driven story has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore aerospace and defense stocks for more complex, project based businesses riding similar spending trends.

But with the shares already up sharply, trading near analyst targets yet still showing a hefty intrinsic discount, is TechnipFMC a mispriced cash generator in waiting, or is the market already baking in years of subsea growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 3% Undervalued

With TechnipFMC trading at $44.38 against a narrative fair value of $45.75, the story leans modestly positive and leans heavily on subsea momentum.

Expansion and recurring tail of Subsea services revenues, driven by a growing installed base and long duration contracts (20 to 35 years), provide predictable, high margin income streams that underpin long term earnings stability and net margin improvement.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady, contract backed subsea cash flows, rising margins and a richer future earnings multiple all fit together. The full narrative connects the dots in surprising ways.

Result: Fair Value of $45.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upbeat story could unravel if oil price volatility delays offshore projects or if TechnipFMC is slow to pivot toward energy transition opportunities.

Find out about the key risks to this TechnipFMC narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

Our SWS DCF model paints a far punchier picture than the narrative fair value, putting TechnipFMC’s worth closer to $67.96, about 35 percent above today’s $44.38 share price. If the cash flows are right and the market is wrong, how long can that gap last?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own TechnipFMC Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this view, or simply prefer hands on research, you can build a tailored narrative yourself in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TechnipFMC research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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