HF Sinclair Corporation Just Beat EPS By 386%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Statutory revenue and earnings both blasted past expectations, with revenue of US$7.5b beating expectations by 55% and earnings per share (EPS) reaching US$0.90, some 386% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on HF Sinclair after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for HF Sinclair

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from HF Sinclair's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$30.6b in 2022, which would reflect a substantial 37% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 194% to US$7.42. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$28.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.87 in 2022. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about HF Sinclair's future following the latest results, with a very substantial lift in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for HF Sinclair 8.6% to US$48.20on the back of these upgrades. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HF Sinclair at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$38.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting HF Sinclair's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 52% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.3% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 3.1% annually. It seems obvious that as part of the brighter growth outlook, HF Sinclair is expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HF Sinclair's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, they also lifted their revenue estimates, and the company is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HF Sinclair going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for HF Sinclair (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.