Analysts Are Updating Their CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CVI) Estimates After Its Third-Quarter Results

CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CVI) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$1.8b, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$1.24 some 629% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CVR Energy after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for CVR Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering CVR Energy, is for revenues of US$7.53b in 2025. This implies a discernible 4.3% reduction in CVR Energy's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 30% to US$0.48 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.58 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$22.33, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CVR Energy at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.4% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - CVR Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple CVR Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with CVR Energy (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.