Civitas Resources, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 5.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Civitas Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CIVI) shares plunged 22% in the week since its latest yearly results, closing yesterday at US$39.79. Revenues of US$5.2b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$8.46, missing estimates by 5.2%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Civitas Resources

Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Civitas Resources provided consensus estimates of US$5.07b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 2.7% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 8.3% to US$8.27 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.12 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$68.40, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Civitas Resources at US$80.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$60.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 50% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Civitas Resources is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Civitas Resources. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Civitas Resources' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$68.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Civitas Resources. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Civitas Resources analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Civitas Resources has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.