Antero Resources Corporation

NYSE:AR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.2b

Antero Resources Valuation

Is AR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AR ($32.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($84.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AR?

Key metric: As AR is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AR. This is calculated by dividing AR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.4x
SalesUS$4.27b
Market CapUS$10.17b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.6x
RRC Range Resources
3.7x12.5%US$8.6b
OVV Ovintiv
1.2x0.8%US$11.8b
APA APA
0.9x-2.7%US$8.4b
CNX CNX Resources
4.4x16.6%US$6.0b
AR Antero Resources
2.4x12.0%US$10.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the peer average (2.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

38 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PSX Phillips 66
0.4x-5.4%US$55.33b
MPC Marathon Petroleum
0.4x-3.6%US$50.18b
VLO Valero Energy
0.3x-2.7%US$44.03b
PAA Plains All American Pipeline
0.3x-2.1%US$13.14b
AR 2.4xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies38PS01.63.24.86.48+
38 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.4x
Fair PS Ratio2.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$32.69
US$34.00
+4.0%
17.9%US$46.00US$24.00n/a21
Nov ’25US$25.54
US$33.05
+29.4%
14.8%US$46.00US$24.00n/a22
Oct ’25US$28.66
US$33.00
+15.1%
14.8%US$44.00US$24.00n/a20
Sep ’25US$26.99
US$35.56
+31.7%
13.5%US$44.00US$24.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$28.77
US$36.12
+25.5%
12.7%US$41.00US$24.00n/a17
Jul ’25US$32.13
US$36.18
+12.6%
13.5%US$44.00US$25.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$35.63
US$35.47
-0.4%
12.7%US$44.00US$25.00n/a17
May ’25US$32.66
US$33.46
+2.4%
12.2%US$41.00US$25.00n/a19
Apr ’25US$29.39
US$29.53
+0.5%
12.0%US$37.00US$24.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$25.92
US$28.12
+8.5%
13.4%US$37.00US$21.00n/a17
Feb ’25US$22.16
US$27.83
+25.6%
12.5%US$37.00US$23.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$22.68
US$30.78
+35.7%
16.1%US$44.00US$23.00n/a18
Dec ’24US$23.88
US$32.67
+36.8%
14.2%US$44.00US$23.00n/a18
Nov ’24US$29.78
US$32.61
+9.5%
14.3%US$44.00US$23.00US$25.5418
Oct ’24US$25.38
US$31.56
+24.4%
16.6%US$45.00US$21.00US$28.6616
Sep ’24US$28.19
US$31.50
+11.7%
16.5%US$45.00US$21.00US$26.9916
Aug ’24US$27.12
US$29.94
+10.4%
18.5%US$43.00US$20.00US$28.7716
Jul ’24US$23.03
US$29.31
+27.3%
19.8%US$41.00US$20.00US$32.1316
Jun ’24US$20.16
US$30.33
+50.5%
20.1%US$41.00US$20.00US$35.6315
May ’24US$22.04
US$31.80
+44.3%
19.4%US$45.00US$21.00US$32.6615
Apr ’24US$23.09
US$33.13
+43.5%
15.4%US$39.00US$23.00US$29.3915
Mar ’24US$26.47
US$36.40
+37.5%
17.8%US$51.00US$23.00US$25.9215
Feb ’24US$27.92
US$39.65
+42.0%
17.3%US$51.00US$25.00US$22.1617
Jan ’24US$30.99
US$46.06
+48.6%
14.8%US$55.00US$28.00US$22.6816
Dec ’23US$35.35
US$47.44
+34.2%
16.7%US$61.00US$28.00US$23.8816
Nov ’23US$36.04
US$47.63
+32.1%
16.5%US$61.00US$28.00US$29.7816

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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