Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to US$37.15 in the past week. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at US$205m, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Viper Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Viper Energy's six analysts is for revenues of US$883.5m in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 12% to US$2.01 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$865.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.05 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a slight bump in to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$42.25, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Viper Energy's valuation in the near term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Viper Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$53.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Viper Energy's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 29% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Viper Energy's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Viper Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Viper Energy you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.