Smart Sand's (NASDAQ:SND) Stock Price Has Reduced 79% In The Past Three Years

Smart Sand, Inc. (NASDAQ:SND) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 47% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 79% in the last three years. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.

See our latest analysis for Smart Sand

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Although the share price is down over three years, Smart Sand actually managed to grow EPS by 21% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 11% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Smart Sand further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Smart Sand has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Smart Sand will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for Smart Sand shares, which cost holders 24%, while the market was up about 23%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 21% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last three years. We'd need clear signs of growth in the underlying business before we could muster much enthusiasm for this one. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Smart Sand better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 6 warning signs for Smart Sand (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

Of course Smart Sand may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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