Golar LNG (NasdaqGS:GLNG): Revisiting Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Golar LNG (GLNG) has quietly drifted lower over the past month even as its long term track record and growing earnings suggest a more nuanced story for patient investors.

See our latest analysis for Golar LNG.

Despite the recent 30 day share price return of negative 7.35 percent and year to date share price return of negative 12.89 percent, Golar LNG is still coming off a powerful three year total shareholder return of 74.18 percent and a five year total shareholder return of 352.61 percent. This suggests that current weakness appears more like fading momentum than a broken long term thesis.

If you like the structural story behind LNG but want a broader energy watchlist, this could be a good moment to explore aerospace and defense stocks as another area of opportunity.

With earnings still growing, a strong multi year track record, and a share price sitting below consensus targets, the key question now is simple: is Golar LNG a mispriced value play, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.3% Undervalued

With Golar LNG last closing at $38.19 against a narrative fair value near $51, the implied upside leans heavily on future cash flows and margins.

The company has secured long-term (20-year) charters for its existing FLNG units, providing $17 billion in contracted EBITDA backlog and 20 years of cash flow visibility, which is expected to drive a significant (4x) increase in EBITDA and contracted free cash flow by 2028. This indicates the market may be undervaluing its forward earnings stability and revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how multi decade contracts, rising utilization, and richer margins combine into that upside case? The growth path sketched here is surprisingly bold. Want to see the exact assumptions driving it?

Result: Fair Value of $51.10 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained LNG demand is not guaranteed, and overcapacity from new FLNG units could pressure charter rates, margins, and the currently optimistic 2028 earnings path.

Find out about the key risks to this Golar LNG narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Analysts see upside, but our price to earnings work paints a tougher picture. At 65.4 times earnings, Golar trades far richer than both its industry at 13.5 times and its fair ratio of 18.5 times, implying downside risk if sentiment cools or growth underwhelms.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Golar LNG Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Golar LNG research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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