The Bull Case For SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) Could Change Following Unexpected Private-Sector Job Losses and Fed Cut Speculation

• In September 2025, the ADP National Employment Report revealed an unexpected loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, marking the weakest monthly showing since March 2023 and highlighting significant losses in leisure and hospitality.
• This surprise downturn in the labor market has fueled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, prompting increased investor interest in gold as a traditional safe haven.
• We'll explore how speculation of lower interest rates could shape SPDR Gold Trust's investment narrative in uncertain economic conditions.

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What Is SPDR Gold Trust's Investment Narrative?

To be comfortable as a shareholder in SPDR Gold Trust, you generally need to believe that gold will remain a reliable hedge during unsettled market periods and amid monetary policy shifts. The surprisingly weak US employment numbers in September intensified speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon pivot to rate cuts. Traditionally, this creates a short-term catalyst for gold and, by extension, gold-backed securities like SPDR Gold Trust, as lower rates can enhance gold’s appeal relative to other assets. GLD’s recent run-up in returns suggests that some of this has already been priced in, but the situation adds urgency to questions about the sustainability of its outperformance. A key risk now is whether economic uncertainty translates into lasting demand for gold, or whether sentiment shifts as economic conditions stabilize or if central bank policy turns less accommodating than markets anticipate. On the flip side, shifting Federal Reserve signals could quickly alter demand for gold.

SPDR Gold Trust's shares are on the way up, but they could be overextended by 34%. Uncover the fair value now.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twelve members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate GLD’s fair value between US$27 and US$270, reflecting a broad mix of views. While many price in the recent labor market weakness and potential Fed reaction, be mindful of how quickly sentiment can change if policy expectations shift. Explore how these diverse perspectives might inform your outlook.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on SPDR Gold Trust - why the stock might be worth as much as $270.00!

Build Your Own SPDR Gold Trust Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SPDR Gold Trust research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SPDR Gold Trust research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SPDR Gold Trust's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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