Blue Owl Capital (OWL): Evaluating Valuation Following Recent Share Price Declines

Blue Owl Capital (OWL) has recently seen its stock under some pressure, moving lower over the past month despite delivering solid annual revenue and net income growth. Investors are taking a closer look at what is driving these trends and whether the company’s fundamentals offer long-term value.

See our latest analysis for Blue Owl Capital.

Despite resilient business growth, Blue Owl Capital’s 1-month share price return of -10.93% and year-to-date slide of -37.47% highlight persistent caution in the market, even as the company maintains a strong three-year total shareholder return of 52.38%. The recent bounce of 5.13% over the last week suggests sentiment may be stabilizing. Longer-term investors are weighing big-picture valuation and growth opportunities against short-term volatility.

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With shares trading well below Wall Street targets despite steady financial growth, investors have to ask, is Blue Owl Capital undervalued, or is the recent weakness just the market factoring in the road ahead? Is there a buying opportunity, or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 31.1% Undervalued

Blue Owl Capital closed at $14.75, while the narrative's fair value stands at $21.40. The gap between price and outlook is raising eyebrows and fueling a narrative debate about where the stock should really trade next.

Exceptional long-term opportunities in digital infrastructure, fueled by generational investment in data centers and AI-related assets where Blue Owl has industry leadership, are catalyzing large-scale fundraising and deployment. This is supporting robust growth in management fees and recurring revenues over the next several years.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s powering this bold target? The story hinges on rapidly expanding margins and accelerating revenues in a red-hot market for alternative assets. Discover which Wall Street projection could flip the script on today’s value when you dig deeper into the full rationale.

Result: Fair Value of $21.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could shift if Blue Owl’s rapid expansion leads to costly integration challenges or if slowing fundraising dampens future revenue growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Blue Owl Capital narrative.

Another View: DCF Model Says Overvalued

While many see value at current prices, our DCF model paints a different picture. It suggests Blue Owl Capital’s shares are trading above their fair value, with a large gap between price and their estimated discounted future cash flows. Does this flag extra risk, or does it mean the market is betting on growth that models cannot capture?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Blue Owl Capital for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 933 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Blue Owl Capital Narrative

If you’d rather follow your own convictions or want a fresh perspective on the numbers, it’s easy to build a personalized take in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your Blue Owl Capital research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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