The Bull Case for OneMain Holdings (OMF) Could Change Following Strong Q3 Earnings and New Buyback Program

• OneMain Holdings reported third quarter 2025 results showing net income of US$199 million, up from US$157 million a year earlier, declared a 1% quarterly dividend increase, and announced a new US$1 billion share repurchase program.
• The combination of higher earnings, incremental dividend growth, and expanded buybacks highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders and confidence in future cash flows.
• We’ll examine how the new US$1 billion share repurchase program shapes OneMain’s investment narrative and outlook for shareholder value.

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OneMain Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in OneMain Holdings, you need to believe in the company's ability to drive sustained loan demand among non-prime consumers, manage credit risk, and capitalize on omni-channel lending even as digital competitors push efficiency. The recent announcement of higher earnings, a slightly increased dividend, and a US$1 billion buyback program may provide support for short term sentiment, but it does not materially change the most important near-term catalyst: robust consumer borrowing and receivables growth. The biggest current risk remains exposure to higher charge-offs if borrower quality deteriorates or macroeconomic conditions worsen, something not yet reflected in the latest updates.

The most relevant recent development is the new US$1 billion share repurchase program authorized by OneMain's board. With nearly 8.5% of shares bought back under the prior plan and a fresh buyback capacity through 2028, this move reinforces management’s commitment to capital returns at a time of ongoing competition in the nonprime lending market. While buybacks can support earnings per share, they also highlight how reliant the business is on stable cash flow and access to funding.

In contrast, investors should also be aware of the potential risks facing OneMain if digital-first competitors erode the branch model’s cost efficiency, especially if...

Read the full narrative on OneMain Holdings (it's free!)

OneMain Holdings' narrative projects $6.8 billion revenue and $1.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 34.9% yearly revenue growth and a $636 million earnings increase from $664 million.

Uncover how OneMain Holdings' forecasts yield a $64.21 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Private investors in the Simply Wall St Community have offered 5 fair value estimates for OneMain Holdings, ranging widely from US$55 to US$119. While opinions vary, the company’s recent earnings growth and commitment to buybacks may influence how you view its future earnings power and resilience. Explore multiple viewpoints to inform your next move.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on OneMain Holdings - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own OneMain Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your OneMain Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free OneMain Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate OneMain Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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