When a company like NCR Atleos (NATL) beats revenue expectations, it tends to draw investor attention—for good reason. The latest quarterly update saw revenue come in 2% ahead of Wall Street forecasts, driven by growing demand for self-service banking technology and ATM outsourcing. Management sounded a confident note as well, not just pointing to solid momentum but also doubling down on the company’s ability to meet its full-year outlook. That combination of results and upbeat commentary gives shareholders some fresh data to consider when sizing up the stock.
Looking at the bigger picture, NCR Atleos is riding a sizeable wave this year, posting a 40% return over the past 12 months alongside a 44% surge in the past three months alone. The company’s efforts to boost service revenue per machine and maintain strategic progress have made their mark, especially as competitors like Paymentus have shone, while others such as NerdWallet have stumbled. Momentum here looks more sustained than fleeting, which sets a useful backdrop for any valuation-based discussion.
Given these recent gains and improving fundamentals, is there still meaningful upside in NCR Atleos, or have markets already factored in future growth and efficiency gains?
Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued
The latest and most widely followed narrative suggests that NCR Atleos trades at a notable discount to fair value, thanks to bullish long-term forecasts on revenue growth and margin expansion.
High recurring revenue mix (over 70% in Q2), significant productivity gains through AI-driven service optimization, and a rapidly scaling backlog are driving strong margin expansion and robust free cash flow. These developments underpin announced share buybacks and sustained EPS growth, suggesting current valuation does not reflect enhanced long-term earnings power.
Want to know why analysts see even more upside ahead? Their calculations hinge on future profits and margins that rewrite the company's financial playbook. Curious what makes this valuation different, and what numbers drive it? Discover the quantitative keys behind their surprisingly bullish case.
Result: Fair Value of $44.67 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.However, a rapid move by banks toward digital and contactless channels, or a slowdown in hardware upgrades, could quickly change the narrative for Atleos.
Find out about the key risks to this NCR Atleos narrative.Another View: Market Comparisons Shift the Lens
Looking at standard market comparisons, NCR Atleos appears considerably more expensive than similar companies in its sector. This alternative valuation framework may challenge the bullish outlook. Is the optimism justified, or is caution warranted?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.Build Your Own NCR Atleos Narrative
If you see things differently, or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, you can shape and share your own valuation thesis in just a few minutes. Do it your way.
A great starting point for your NCR Atleos research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
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