MGIC Investment Corporation Just Beat EPS By 15%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.1% to US$24.82 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$307m were in line with what the analysts predicted, MGIC Investment surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.77 per share, a notable 15% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MGIC Investment after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for MGIC Investment

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MGIC Investment's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.25b in 2025. This reflects a credible 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 8.0% to US$2.77 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.78 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$26.21, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MGIC Investment at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$23.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that MGIC Investment's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.3% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.9% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.1% annually. So while MGIC Investment's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MGIC Investment going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - MGIC Investment has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.