Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) After Its First-Quarter Report

Investors in Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.7% to close at US$559 following the release of its first-quarter results. Mastercard reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$7.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.59, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Mastercard's 35 analysts is for revenues of US$31.9b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 9.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.8% to US$15.74. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$31.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.83 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Mastercard

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$615, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mastercard at US$685 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$466. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Mastercard'shistorical trends, as the 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that Mastercard is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Mastercard going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Mastercard that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.