Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:JEF) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:JEF) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.4% to US$38.06 in the week after its latest yearly results. Jefferies Financial Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$8.2b and statutory earnings per share of US$6.13, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Jefferies Financial Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Jefferies Financial Group

Taking into account the latest results, the four analysts covering Jefferies Financial Group provided consensus estimates of US$6.50b revenue in 2022, which would reflect a concerning 21% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 45% to US$3.76 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.72 in 2022. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$46.75, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jefferies Financial Group at US$57.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$40.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 21% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Jefferies Financial Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Jefferies Financial Group going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Jefferies Financial Group is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are significant...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.