Little Excitement Around Hercules Capital, Inc.'s (NYSE:HTGC) Earnings

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.9x Hercules Capital, Inc. (NYSE:HTGC) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 19x and even P/E's higher than 34x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Hercules Capital's earnings growth of late has been pretty similar to most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this modest earnings performance may begin to slide. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

See our latest analysis for Hercules Capital

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Hercules Capital will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Hercules Capital's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with earnings down 29% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 4.3% during the coming year according to the eight analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we are not surprised that Hercules Capital is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Hercules Capital's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Hercules Capital (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.