Assessing Shift4 Payments After a 36% Slide and Fintech Volatility in 2025

• If you have been watching Shift4 Payments and wondering whether the recent drop has quietly turned it into a value opportunity, you are not alone. This article is going to unpack exactly that.
• The stock is down 36.0% year to date and 32.0% over the last 12 months, even though it is still up 45.3% over 3 years. This mix hints at shifting market sentiment rather than a simple broken growth story.
• Recent headlines around the payments space have focused on competition in omnichannel and integrated payments, as well as ongoing consolidation among processors and tech driven platforms. All of this shapes how investors view Shift4's growth runway and risk profile. In particular, news about strategic partnerships, product expansions in hospitality and sports venues, and broader fintech volatility has helped fuel the swings in the share price this year.
• Right now, Shift4 scores a 2/6 valuation check rating, which suggests pockets of undervaluation but also some areas where the price still bakes in optimism. Next we will walk through the key valuation approaches, then finish by looking at a more holistic way to judge whether the stock really is cheap or expensive.

Shift4 Payments scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Shift4 Payments Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much value Shift4 Payments can create above the return that shareholders require, based on its equity base and profitability. Instead of focusing on cash flows, it asks whether the company earns a strong enough return on its book value to justify the current price.

For Shift4, the model starts with a Book Value of $10.14 per share and a Stable EPS of $3.42 per share, derived from the median return on equity over the past 5 years. With an Average Return on Equity of 15.87% and a Cost of Equity of $1.91 per share, the company generates an Excess Return of $1.51 per share. Analysts expect the Stable Book Value to grow to $21.51 per share, based on weighted future book value estimates from three analysts.

Feeding these inputs into the Excess Returns framework produces an intrinsic value of about $48.42 per share, which implies the stock is roughly 43.2% overvalued relative to its current market price.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Shift4 Payments may be overvalued by 43.2%. Discover 907 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Shift4 Payments.

Approach 2: Shift4 Payments Price vs Earnings

For a profitable business like Shift4, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge what the market is willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings. Investors typically accept a higher PE when they expect stronger growth or perceive lower risk, while slower or riskier companies usually trade on lower, more conservative multiples.

Shift4 currently trades on a PE of 28.41x, which is roughly double the broader Diversified Financial industry average of 13.74x and still below the peer group average of 62.77x. On the surface this suggests investors are pricing in above average growth, but not to the extreme levels seen in some high flying fintech names.

Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by estimating what PE multiple would be reasonable for Shift4 specifically, based on its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk factors. For Shift4, this Fair Ratio comes out at 25.66x. Compared with the actual 28.41x, the stock is trading a bit richer than what its fundamentals justify, which points to a degree of overvaluation on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Shift4 Payments Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company linked directly to a set of numbers such as your fair value, and your expectations for its future revenue, earnings and margins.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and make this process easy and accessible. They help you turn your view of Shift4 into a concrete financial forecast, then into a fair value that you can compare against today’s share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell.

Because Narratives are updated dynamically when new information arrives, such as earnings results, acquisitions or guidance changes, they give you a living view of what the stock is worth rather than a one off static estimate.

For example, one investor might build a bullish Shift4 Narrative around strong international expansion, rising margins and a fair value closer to the top analyst target of $131. A more cautious investor could focus on integration risks, leverage and competition and end up with a fair value nearer the low analyst target of $88. Both perspectives are captured transparently in their respective Narratives.

Do you think there's more to the story for Shift4 Payments? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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