A Look at FinVolution Group (NYSE:FINV) Valuation Following Q3 Results and Fresh 2025 Guidance

FinVolution Group (NYSE:FINV) just reported its third quarter 2025 results, with both revenue and net income up from a year ago. The company also rolled out new full-year revenue guidance, highlighting expectations of continued growth.

See our latest analysis for FinVolution Group.

After a stretch of challenging months, FinVolution Group’s shares are still seeking their footing, despite stronger recent results and the company’s confirmation of full-year revenue growth. While momentum has faded lately with a 23.2% 30-day decline in share price and a 21.3% drop in total shareholder return over the past year, long-term holders have still seen an impressive 163% total return over five years. The recent buyback completion and upbeat revenue outlook may help restore sentiment if the trend continues.

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But after a strong multi-year run and a challenging twelve months for the stock, the question remains: is FinVolution still trading at an attractive discount, or has the market already factored in the company’s future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 41.5% Undervalued

FinVolution Group’s narrative-based fair value is set at $8.61, which stands well above the recent closing price of $5.04. Rather than relying solely on short-term sentiment, this valuation draws from pivotal underlying drivers shaping the company’s future prospects.

Strong momentum in international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets like Pakistan, is rapidly diversifying FinVolution's revenue streams. With international transaction volumes up 39%+ year-over-year alongside a 122% rise in unique borrowers, continued digital adoption and broader financial inclusion are expected to drive sustained topline revenue growth and reduce exposure to slowdowns or regulatory shifts in China.

Read the complete narrative.

What is fueling this sharp disconnect between fair value and market price? The narrative hinges on bold multi-year growth bets, surging international revenues, and ambitious margin shifts that only a deep dive will reveal. Which critical assumptions have been baked into this upside? Are you curious yet?

Result: Fair Value of $8.61 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing regulatory changes in China and a potential rise in credit risk could challenge FinVolution’s optimistic growth story and investor outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this FinVolution Group narrative.

Build Your Own FinVolution Group Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to tailor your own conclusions, you can dive into the data and construct a personalized take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your FinVolution Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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