Ellington Credit Valuation
Is EARN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of EARN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate EARN's fair value for valuation analysis.
Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate EARN's fair value for valuation analysis.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EARN?
Key metric: As EARN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is EARN's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 8x |
| Earnings | US$21.03m |
| Market Cap | US$168.42m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | 0.3x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does EARN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 58.7x | ||
TRLC TriLinc Global Impact Fund | 4.7x | n/a | US$97.0m |
IBAC IB Acquisition | 192.3x | n/a | US$158.6m |
AGAC.F African Gold Acquisition | 14.7x | n/a | US$158.6m |
EVE EVe Mobility Acquisition | 23.1x | n/a | US$162.8m |
EARN Ellington Credit | 8x | 27.2% | US$168.4m |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EARN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the peer average (73.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does EARN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?
| 22 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
ADX Adams Diversified Equity Fund | 4x | n/a | US$2.52b |
CET Central Securities | 4.5x | n/a | US$1.32b |
GAM General American Investors Company | 4.1x | n/a | US$1.16b |
MUDS Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation II | 3.4x | n/a | US$401.64m |
| 22 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EARN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (23.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is EARN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 13.8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EARN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$6.65 | US$7.25 +9.0% | 10.3% | US$8.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Nov ’25 | US$6.44 | US$7.25 +12.6% | 10.3% | US$8.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Oct ’25 | US$6.86 | US$7.25 +5.7% | 10.3% | US$8.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Sep ’25 | US$6.92 | US$7.25 +4.8% | 10.3% | US$8.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Aug ’25 | US$6.94 | US$7.25 +4.5% | 10.3% | US$8.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Jul ’25 | US$6.83 | US$7.25 +6.1% | 10.3% | US$8.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Jun ’25 | US$7.06 | US$7.25 +2.7% | 10.3% | US$8.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| May ’25 | US$6.77 | US$6.75 -0.3% | 3.7% | US$7.00 | US$6.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Apr ’25 | US$6.97 | US$6.50 -6.7% | 7.7% | US$7.00 | US$6.00 | n/a | 2 |
| Mar ’25 | US$5.99 | US$6.50 +8.5% | 7.7% | US$7.00 | US$6.00 | n/a | 2 |
| Feb ’25 | US$6.09 | US$6.50 +6.7% | 7.7% | US$7.00 | US$6.00 | n/a | 2 |
| Jan ’25 | US$6.13 | US$6.50 +6.0% | 7.7% | US$7.00 | US$6.00 | n/a | 2 |
| Apr ’24 | US$7.30 | US$8.50 +16.4% | 5.9% | US$9.00 | US$8.00 | US$6.97 | 2 |
| Jan ’24 | US$6.86 | US$7.75 +13.0% | 3.2% | US$8.00 | US$7.50 | US$6.13 | 2 |
| Dec ’23 | US$7.20 | US$7.75 +7.6% | 3.2% | US$8.00 | US$7.50 | US$6.08 | 2 |
| Nov ’23 | US$6.79 | US$8.38 +23.3% | 13.4% | US$9.50 | US$7.25 | US$5.40 | 2 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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