The Bull Case For Burford Capital (BUR) Could Change Following YPF Appeal Progress and Argentina’s Ongoing Resistance

• Burford Capital recently provided an update on the ongoing YPF litigation, announcing that oral arguments for the Main Appeal against Argentina took place on October 29, 2025, with recognition and enforcement proceedings also advancing across multiple foreign jurisdictions as Argentina continues to contest the process.
• This development introduces ongoing legal uncertainty and the potential for substantial future impacts on Burford's operations and stakeholder outcomes, given the scale of the original US$16 billion judgment and Argentina's resistance to enforcement.
• We will examine how the latest developments in the YPF appeal shape Burford Capital's investment narrative and future risk profile.

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Burford Capital Investment Narrative Recap

Being a shareholder in Burford Capital means believing in the long-term value of litigation finance and the company's capacity to turn complex legal assets into realized gains, especially from large cases like YPF. The recent update that oral arguments in the YPF Main Appeal have taken place does not materially change the short-term catalyst or the chief risk: case concentration. The path to definitive resolution remains unpredictable, continuing to shape both potential windfalls and exposure to volatility.

Among the recent announcements, Burford's scheduled Q3 2025 earnings report on November 5 stands out as most immediate. While a single quarter rarely shifts the fundamental narrative, this update arrives at a moment when investors are watching extra closely for signs of stability in revenue realization from major litigation matters like YPF, as well as management's communication around portfolio risk and enforcement timing.

Yet even as case developments unfold, investors should keep in mind that ongoing appeals and cross-jurisdictional enforcement challenges ...

Read the full narrative on Burford Capital (it's free!)

Burford Capital's narrative projects $996.5 million revenue and $497.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 31.0% yearly revenue growth and an increase of $255.6 million in earnings from $241.9 million today.

Uncover how Burford Capital's forecasts yield a $18.70 fair value, a 75% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community included 2 independent fair value estimates for Burford Capital, ranging from US$18.70 to US$21.09 per share. With many participants focused on case concentration risk, it pays to consider how a single outsized litigation outcome could sway future returns and portfolio stability, see how other investors weigh these outcomes and compare your own perspective.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Burford Capital - why the stock might be worth just $18.70!

Build Your Own Burford Capital Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Burford Capital research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Burford Capital research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Burford Capital's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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