Can Rising Deployments Offset Burford Capital's (BUR) Latest Revenue Dip and Net Loss?

• Burford Capital reported its third-quarter and nine-month results for 2025, with revenue of US$69.8 million and a net loss of US$19.16 million for the quarter, compared to far higher figures a year ago.
• Despite these weaker results, Burford's CEO highlighted rising deployments and expanded global operations as factors that could strengthen the company's business mix in the future.
• We'll examine how Burford's significant quarterly revenue decline and net loss may influence its longer-term investment narrative.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Burford Capital Investment Narrative Recap

To own Burford Capital, shareholders must believe in the resilience of legal finance and the company's ability to convert a robust pipeline of new case deployments into long-term revenue growth. The sharp revenue decline and net loss in the latest quarter are unlikely to materially alter the most important short-term catalyst, continued strong new case origination, although they do highlight near-term unpredictability; meanwhile, over-concentration in the YPF case remains the biggest risk to consistent results.

Among recent announcements, Burford's half-yearly interim dividend of 6.25 US cents per share stands out. While this signals management's commitment to returning capital to shareholders, the recent weak earnings highlight the need for sustained, diversified income sources to maintain or grow these payouts as new deployments scale up.

In contrast, investors should be aware that dependence on outcomes from just one major case exposes the business to potentially abrupt swings in earnings if...

Read the full narrative on Burford Capital (it's free!)

Burford Capital is projected to reach $996.5 million in revenue and $497.5 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes a 31.0% annual revenue growth rate and more than double ($255.6 million increase) in earnings from the current $241.9 million.

Uncover how Burford Capital's forecasts yield a $18.90 fair value, a 111% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Community fair value estimates for Burford Capital span from US$18.90 to US$21.88, based on two distinct Simply Wall St Community viewpoints. With steep recent revenue declines and single-case concentration risk, readers may want to consult several perspectives before forming an outlook.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Burford Capital - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Burford Capital Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Burford Capital research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Burford Capital research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Burford Capital's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Burford Capital?

These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:

• We've found 14 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.
• Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 22 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.
• Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com