Northern Trust Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Northern Trust has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 7.5%, while the Capital Markets industry saw earnings growing at 6.3% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 6.3% per year. Northern Trust's return on equity is 14.4%, and it has net margins of 21.7%.
Key information
7.46%
Earnings growth rate
9.37%
EPS growth rate
| Capital Markets Industry Growth | 10.26% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.26% |
| Return on equity | 14.40% |
| Net Margin | 21.66% |
| Next Earnings Update | 22 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 01
NTRS: Execution In New Mandates And Digital Custody Will Shape 2026 Fee Momentum
The analyst price target for Northern Trust has been raised from $168.58 to $171.00 as analysts factor in modestly higher fair value estimates, supported by updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples, following a series of recent target increases across major research firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Trust has centered on a series of price target changes, with several major firms, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, revisiting their views.Narrative Update • Apr 30
NTRS: Fee Momentum Into 2026 Will Depend On Execution And Service Expansion
The updated analyst price target for Northern Trust increases to $168.58 from $153.04. This reflects analysts' use of a slightly lower discount rate, modestly higher revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple in their refreshed models.Analysis Article • Apr 23
Results: Northern Trust Corporation Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
It's been a good week for Northern Trust Corporation ( NASDAQ:NTRS ) shareholders, because the company has just...Narrative Update • Apr 15
NTRS: Fee Momentum Into 2026 Will Rely On Execution And Service Expansion
The updated analyst price target for Northern Trust moves slightly lower to reflect a fair value adjustment from about $155.82 to $153.04, as analysts factor in revised assumptions on discount rates, growth, margins and future P/E while balancing recent upgrades and target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Trust reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting ratings and price targets in both directions.Narrative Update • Apr 01
NTRS: Capital Markets Recovery Into 2026 Will Support Fee Momentum
The updated analyst price target for Northern Trust has inched down by about $1 to $155.82 as analysts balance slightly stronger long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions with a modestly lower future P/E multiple and discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Northern Trust has become more mixed, with several firms lifting price targets over the past few months and one later cut, as analysts reassess both earnings power and what multiple to pay for the shares.Narrative Update • Mar 18
NTRS: Capital Markets Recovery Into 2026 Will Support Fee Resilience
Analyst price targets for Northern Trust have been revised upward by several firms, with increases ranging from $8 to $20 as analysts point to supportive sector conditions, recent bank target adjustments and projections for stronger capital markets activity by 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more constructive stance on Northern Trust, with several firms lifting price targets in light of sector-wide adjustments and expectations for healthier capital markets activity into 2026.Narrative Update • Mar 04
NTRS: Fair Value View Will Reflect Sector Tailwinds And Execution Risks
The analyst price target for Northern Trust has increased by a double-digit dollar amount, with analysts highlighting a series of recent target raises across the Street as they update their views on the bank and trust sector. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Northern Trust cluster around higher price targets, with several banks revising their views as part of broader sector work on trust banks and capital markets names.Narrative Update • Feb 18
NTRS: Fair Value View Will Balance Capital Markets Tailwinds And Execution Risks
The analyst price target for Northern Trust has been adjusted higher to $157.11 from $154.61 as analysts factor in slightly stronger revenue growth, a modestly higher future P/E assumption, and incremental improvements in expected profitability and risk assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research has clustered around higher price targets for Northern Trust, with several banks adjusting their models to reflect updated assumptions on growth, profitability, and sector drivers.Narrative Update • Feb 03
NTRS: Fair Value View Weighs Rising Rate Tailwinds And Execution Risks
The updated analyst price target for Northern Trust rises to about $155 from roughly $143, as analysts factor in slightly higher revenue growth, improved profit margin assumptions, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple supported by recent price target increases across several research firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates cluster around higher price targets for Northern Trust, with analysts revisiting their models on growth, profitability, and relative valuation across the trust bank and broader capital markets peer group.Seeking Alpha • Jan 22
Northern Trust: Solid Q4, But Valuation Is Too Elevated
Summary Northern Trust Corporation has rallied 34% over the past year, but valuation now appears stretched relative to peers. Fee compression persists, with asset and AUM growth outpacing fee revenue; NTRS remains highly reliant on net interest income. Expense growth, though partly driven by one-time items, remains elevated; restructuring aims to improve cost efficiency. I recommend selling NTRS stock, as shares trade at a premium to Bank of NY Mellon and State Street, with limited upside and little room for error. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jan 20
NTRS: Fair Value View Maintains Balance As 7% Prime Rate And Q3 Mix Persist
Analysts have lifted their blended fair value estimate for Northern Trust to about $143 from roughly $138, citing modestly higher modeled revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and a higher future P/E assumption that aligns with recent price target moves across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Northern Trust show a mix of optimism and caution, with higher price targets clustered around different views on growth, profitability, and balance sheet quality.Narrative Update • Jan 06
NTRS: Shares Will Stay Balanced As 7% Prime Rate And Q3 Mixed Drivers Persist
Northern Trust's analyst price target has been updated to $137.93 from $134.64 as analysts factor in modest adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin and long term P/E assumptions following mixed Q3 outcomes and differing price target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Analysts are split on Northern Trust, with some focusing on earnings quality and margin strength, while others are more cautious about core revenue trends and fee pressure.Narrative Update • Dec 21
NTRS: Shares Will Remain Balanced Amid 7% Prime Rate And Mixed Earnings Trends
Northern Trust's analyst price target has been nudged slightly higher to approximately $135, as analysts factor in modestly improved valuation metrics supported by resilient net interest income trends, solid fee-based revenue expectations, and ongoing, though uneven, operating performance across recent quarterly results. Analyst Commentary Street research on Northern Trust reflects a balanced mix of optimism and caution, with price targets clustering in a range that brackets the newly revised consensus near $135.Narrative Update • Dec 07
NTRS: Shares Will Stay Balanced Amid 7% Prime Rate And Mixed Earnings Drivers
Northern Trust's analyst price target has been modestly reduced by about $0.15 as analysts recalibrate valuation models to reflect mixed Q3 fee trends, slightly stronger net interest income expectations, and a more balanced outlook on growth and profitability across wealth management and trust banking. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Trust reflects a nuanced mix of optimism and caution, with price targets moving in a relatively narrow band as analysts recalibrate for the latest quarter's dynamics and evolving interest rate expectations.Narrative Update • Nov 23
NTRS: Shares Will Remain Balanced Amid 7% Prime Rate And Mixed Earnings Outlook
Northern Trust’s average analyst price target has shifted higher, supported by analysts who cite an improved net interest income outlook and solid wealth management growth as key factors for the upward adjustment. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Trust reflects a range of perspectives, with some analysts highlighting the bank’s improving financial outlook and growth initiatives, while others remain cautious due to ongoing industry challenges and execution risks.Narrative Update • Nov 07
NTRS: Shares Will Face Uncertainty Amid 7% Prime Rate And Mixed Fee Trends
Northern Trust's analyst price target has been revised slightly lower to $134.50 from $134.86. Analysts factor in modest model adjustments reflecting small shifts in revenue expectations and profit margins following recent quarterly trends.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Fee Headwinds And Market Shifts Will Shape Margins In Coming Quarters
Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for Northern Trust to $134.86 per share, citing adjusted discount rates, slight shifts in revenue growth assumptions, and a resilient profit margin outlook. This follows mixed but generally stable Street sentiment on recent results and future prospects.Narrative Update • Oct 10
Passive Investing And Fee Pressures Will Squeeze Profit Margins
The analyst consensus price target for Northern Trust has been raised from approximately $126 to $133 per share. This reflects modest model adjustments and a generally cautious but stable outlook from analysts on trust banks and capital market trends.Narrative Update • Sep 26
Passive Investing And Fee Pressures Will Squeeze Profit Margins
Northern Trust’s consensus price target was modestly raised to $126.38, as analysts cited outperformance in asset growth, market-driven fee gains, and relatively strong profitability, though concerns remain about valuation following speculation-driven rallies and persistent market volatility. Analyst Commentary Strong growth in assets under custody/administration (AUC/A) outpacing peers, especially when isolating from general market effects.Narrative Update • Sep 11
Passive Investing And Fee Pressures Will Squeeze Profit Margins
Analyst price targets for Northern Trust rose to $124.25 as bullish views center on superior long-term asset growth, improved profitability from market tailwinds, and renewed M&A speculation, though the stock’s recent rally and regulatory hurdles temper upside expectations. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets on Northern Trust due to strong long-term growth in assets under custody/administration, which significantly outpaced peers since the post-GFC period, benefiting from rising equity and fixed income markets.Analysis Article • Sep 04
Northern Trust's (NASDAQ:NTRS) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year
The board of Northern Trust Corporation ( NASDAQ:NTRS ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $0.80 on...Narrative Update • Aug 27
Passive Investing And Fee Pressures Will Squeeze Profit Margins
Driven by robust AUC/A growth, improving profitability, and positive market and revenue trends—partially offset by skepticism around deal speculation and regulatory hurdles—analysts have raised Northern Trust’s price target from $117.79 to $122.17. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite robust growth in assets under custody/administration (AUC/A) at Northern Trust, outpacing peers when market effects are stripped out.Analysis Article • Jul 26
Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
Northern Trust Corporation ( NASDAQ:NTRS ) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were...Seeking Alpha • Feb 26
Northern Trust: Stable And Sustainable, But Overvalued
Summary Northern Trust Corporation shows stable growth with prudent portfolio management and solid capital adequacy despite market volatility and policy easing cycles. Interest income growth slowed in Q4 FY24, suggesting growth is becoming toppish. Increasing real estate loan exposure and decreasing commercial loan exposure could impact loan quality and financial stability amid persistent inflation and market uncertainties. NTRS stock appears overpriced, with a recommendation to hold due to its current valuation, potential downside risks, and slowing momentum. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Northern Trust makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 8,364 | 1,812 | 5,572 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 8,094 | 1,679 | 5,486 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 7,933 | 1,669 | 5,364 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 7,851 | 1,677 | 5,236 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 8,577 | 2,149 | 5,330 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 8,293 | 1,972 | 5,260 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 7,858 | 1,632 | 5,064 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 7,610 | 1,495 | 5,033 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 6,675 | 935 | 4,914 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 6,749 | 1,054 | 4,886 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 6,729 | 1,096 | 4,866 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 6,771 | 1,163 | 4,838 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 6,762 | 1,228 | 4,749 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 6,749 | 1,282 | 4,700 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 6,914 | 1,532 | 4,568 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 6,806 | 1,534 | 4,475 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 6,649 | 1,505 | 4,386 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 6,546 | 1,491 | 4,302 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 6,392 | 1,327 | 4,226 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 6,230 | 1,225 | 4,143 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 6,063 | 1,170 | 4,039 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 5,976 | 1,141 | 4,061 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 6,000 | 1,267 | 3,983 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 6,060 | 1,355 | 3,975 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 6,133 | 1,430 | 3,967 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 6,088 | 1,429 | 3,918 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 6,047 | 1,466 | 3,863 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 5,985 | 1,457 | 3,823 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 5,977 | 1,456 | 3,816 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 5,975 | 1,490 | 3,785 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 5,892 | 1,437 | 3,792 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 5,761 | 1,361 | 3,722 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 5,584 | 1,239 | 3,630 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 5,403 | 1,130 | 3,533 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 5,239 | 1,041 | 3,384 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 5,103 | 1,011 | 3,302 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 5,100 | 1,006 | 3,240 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 5,007 | 990 | 3,190 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 4,904 | 964 | 3,128 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 4,852 | 942 | 3,105 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 4,794 | 949 | 3,075 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 4,746 | 935 | 3,038 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 4,697 | 936 | 2,998 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 4,611 | 912 | 2,955 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: NTRS has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: NTRS's current net profit margins (21.7%) are lower than last year (25%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: NTRS's earnings have grown by 7.5% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: NTRS's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: NTRS had negative earnings growth (-15.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Capital Markets industry average (38.3%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: NTRS's Return on Equity (14.4%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/15 10:24 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/12 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Northern Trust Corporation is covered by 36 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jason Goldberg | Barclays |
| Lucas Montgomery | Bernstein |
| Brennan Hawken | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |