Update shared on 23 Nov 2025
Northern Trust’s average analyst price target has shifted higher, supported by analysts who cite an improved net interest income outlook and solid wealth management growth as key factors for the upward adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research on Northern Trust reflects a range of perspectives, with some analysts highlighting the bank’s improving financial outlook and growth initiatives, while others remain cautious due to ongoing industry challenges and execution risks.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts are raising price targets based on robust net interest income, particularly as recent quarters showed provision beats and slower declines in NII than previously expected.
- Strong performance and growth in wealth management continue to be a central driver for positive outlooks, with notable pre-tax margin strength yielding optimism for future profitability.
- Margin improvement, supported by factors such as reserve releases and lower Euro deposit costs, lends support to an improving earnings trajectory and higher forecast valuations.
- Fee income is anticipated to see a boost from climbing assets under custody and assets under management levels, supported by higher market activity.
- Bearish analysts voice concern over slower overall growth in the core business, warning that premium valuation could be at risk if execution on efficiency and revenue initiatives lags behind.
- There is continued caution surrounding declines in servicing and wealth management revenues, with some pointing to mixed quarterly results as a signal of uneven execution.
- A lower interest rate environment is expected to act as a persistent headwind for net interest income and earnings, even as other areas show strength.
- Questions remain about the bank’s efficiency efforts and the lack of a clearly defined strategy for accelerating financial improvement compared to peers in wealth management.
What's in the News
- Northern Trust has decreased its prime rate from 7.25% to 7.00%, effective Thursday, October 30 (Periodical).
- Truist lowered its price target on Northern Trust to $139 from $142, citing slightly lower fees and a higher net interest income outlook (Periodical).
- Northern Trust decreased its prime rate from 7.50% to 7.25% as of September 18, 2025 (Periodical).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate remained flat at $134.50, indicating no change in the projected price target based on fundamentals.
- Discount Rate decreased modestly from 9.99% to 9.80%. This reflects a slightly lower perceived risk or cost of capital in the updated analysis.
- Revenue Growth Projection held steady at 3.53%, showing consistency in expectations for future top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin forecast was unchanged and remains at 21.26%, suggesting stable expectations for the bank’s profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio increased marginally from 15.68x to 16.17x. This points to a slightly higher valuation based on expected earnings.
Disclaimer
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