Update shared on26 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.72%Northern Trust’s consensus price target was modestly raised to $126.38, as analysts cited outperformance in asset growth, market-driven fee gains, and relatively strong profitability, though concerns remain about valuation following speculation-driven rallies and persistent market volatility.
Analyst Commentary
- Strong growth in assets under custody/administration (AUC/A) outpacing peers, especially when isolating from general market effects.
- Recent gains in global equity and fixed income markets have increased managed assets and fees, additionally buoyed by higher interest rate expectations supporting revenue.
- Profitability and risk profile viewed favorably relative to peers, leading to upward adjustments in price targets by Bullish analysts.
- Stock’s significant rally following merger speculation with BNY Mellon is seen by Bearish analysts as leaving limited near-term upside, prompting some to call shares fully valued.
- Market volatility remains a concern for trust banks, impacting returns, and ongoing commitment to independence means execution against internal targets is critical for the stock’s performance.
What's in the News
- Northern Trust has decreased its prime rate from 7.50% to 7.25%, effective September 18, 2025 (Company release).
- Goldman Sachs held takeover talks with Northern Trust earlier in 2025 as part of its search for “needle-moving” acquisitions, but no deal materialized (Semafor).
- Separate acquisition talks between Goldman Sachs and Cliffwater faltered over price despite advanced negotiations (Semafor).
- Speculation about Goldman Sachs acquiring Northern Trust is currently unfounded, with Northern Trust’s CEO and Goldman sources dismissing a deal, while State Street and BNY Mellon are seen as more likely targets (New York Post).
- Bank of New York Mellon approached Northern Trust in June 2025 to express interest in a merger (Wall Street Journal via Semafor).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Northern Trust
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $124.25 to $126.38.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Northern Trust has risen slightly from 3.6% per annum to 3.7% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Northern Trust remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 15.39x to 15.61x.
Disclaimer
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