Improved Earnings Required Before NMI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:NMIH) Shares Find Their Feet

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may consider NMI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:NMIH) as a highly attractive investment with its 8.1x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

Recent times have been advantageous for NMI Holdings as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for NMI Holdings

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on NMI Holdings.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

NMI Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 19% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 76% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 7.1% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we can see why NMI Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that NMI Holdings maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for NMI Holdings with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on NMI Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.